The Alphametrics World Model is a unique scenario building tool for economists. Supported by a database of consistent series from 1970 to the present day, the model facilitates the elaboration of scenarios postulating developments in selected areas of the world, and analysis of the impact that these will have on other areas or on the global economy. The impact of the Asian crisis has been a favourite topic for analysis over the past couple of years.

The model is a favourite of internationally respected economists around the world. Recently, Wynne Godley (Cambridge University and presently Distinguished Scholar at the Jerome Levy Institute in New York) used the Alphametrics World Model for his Special Report entitled Seven Unsustainable Processes - Medium-Term Prospects and Policies for the United States and the World.

The model is a complete representation of the global trading system, incorporating the effect of variations in trade flows on income and output in various parts of the world as well as the consequences for trade of changes in income in any part of the system. As such, it enables the full repercussions of events like the recent Asian crisis to be simulated, taking explicit account not only of the direct impact on countries trading with economies in the region but also the indirect effects to which this gives rise, including in the market for oil and other primary products. Its power as a simulation device stems in part from the simple accounting identities - in particular, that demand and supply must always be brought into balance - that it ensures are always respected and from the stability of the behavioural patterns and trends which it captures.

The model is not for the faint-hearted and, like all complex models, using it successfully demands a good understanding of the way the model works. Many people therefore prefer the experienced team at Alphametrics to do the analysis for them, based on a good idea of the sorts of scenario they want to investigate. If you are interested in using the world model, e-mail us for further information.